Nearly half of Walmart's budget-stretching shoppers—48%—already shop at Aldi, and 24% of them say they are visiting the German discounter more frequently. That is the competitive signal buried in a new data tool launched Tuesday by Big Chalk Analytics.

The firm announced subscription access to its Trade-Off Consumer database through a new web-based dashboard, giving CPG brands and retailers a way to track where consumers shop, what they buy and how they adjust spending as household budgets tighten. The trended data reaches back to Spring 2024.

The Aldi numbers stand out. Among Walmart shoppers overall, 18% say they are visiting Aldi more often. Among Walmart shoppers who qualify as trade-off consumers, that figure rises to 24%. And 49% of Aldi trade-off consumers say they have switched to a less expensive or private-label brand in coffee.

Together, the findings suggest Aldi is gaining traction with precisely the consumers most actively reconsidering brands, retailers and household spending.

"Walmart is still performing well with trade-off consumers, but Aldi is clearly finding ways to display value that are pulling at Walmart's shopper base," said Rick Miller, partner and Marketing Effectiveness Practice Lead at Big Chalk Analytics. "When 24% of Walmart trade-off consumers say they are increasing Aldi visits, versus 18% of Walmart shoppers overall, that is a competitive signal retailers and brands need to understand. The dashboard lets them identify who is shifting, then drill into the categories and trade-offs behind it."

At the center of the data sit the trade-off consumers themselves—the roughly one-third of U.S. households actively cutting spending across categories through value-based trade-offs. The dashboard lets users track how these consumers change behavior and compare them with the broader U.S. population and other shopper segments.

The tool's capabilities go well beyond retailer visitation. Clients can view census-balanced, statistically projectable total U.S. consumer population data and compare it to other consumer segments, including trade-off consumers. They can analyze GLP-1 users, SNAP and food-assistance consumers, and demographic groups by gender, race, age/generation and income. They can segment consumers by retailers shopped or categories purchased.

The dashboard also trends purchase frequency, brand and pack-size switching, retailer visitation and other trade-off behaviors. It examines media habits, coupon and promotion receptivity, dining-out and leisure-travel behavior to inform media, pricing and shopper strategy.

The workflow moves from a retailer-level signal to the shopper segments driving it, then shows how those consumers are changing brand choice, package size and category substitutions. That gives retailers and CPG brands a clearer view of threats and opportunities they can address through assortment, pricing, promotion and media.

Miller framed the trade-off consumer as a permanent fixture, not a cyclical blip. "The trade-off consumer is not a temporary recession persona," he said. "It is a durable shopping mindset representing roughly one-third of U.S. households. For companies fighting for share, understanding those trade-offs is becoming essential."