Everyday Goods Prices Fall for Second Straight Month: Numerator

Prices for everyday household purchases fell 0.1% in August, the second consecutive monthly decline, according to consumer data and tech company Numerator, which released its August 2026 Consumer Goods Price Index (CGPI) on Thursday.

The drop follows a 0.4% decrease in July and reverses a 0.6% increase in June. Year-over-year inflation also cooled, with everyday goods prices up 2.2% in August versus 2.6% in July. Since January 2018, prices for everyday household goods have climbed 33.2%.

The CGPI is an advance read on consumer inflation based on verified household purchases. It measures the prices consumers actually pay for everyday goods, accounting for real-time changes in purchasing behavior, including brand and retailer switching, and provides context on how inflation differs across consumer groups and product sectors. Similar to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Numerator CGPI covers approximately 20% of the consumption basket captured in the overall PCE price index and closely tracks the PCE Food & Beverage index.

Not all consumer groups are experiencing inflation equally. Low-income and Gen Z consumers have faced higher cumulative price increases since January 2018 — 34.9% and 38.8%, respectively, versus the 33.2% national average. Numerator attributes part of this gap to those groups spending more on quick-service restaurants than the average consumer. Quick-service restaurant prices have risen 53.1% since January 2018, well above the 33.2% increase across the overall consumer basket.

Still, August brought a notable shift for low-income households. Despite facing higher cumulative inflation since January 2018, low-income consumers experienced the slowest year-over-year price growth in August, at 1.2% compared with the 2.2% U.S. average.

Regionally, the gap between the South, West and Midwest closed in July, while the Northeast continues to see the smallest cumulative price increase of the four regions.

Cooling inflation has not translated into consumer relief. In Numerator's August 2026 Economic Sentiment Tracker of more than 2,000 U.S. consumers, 40.5% identified rising prices as their top concern for the coming year, surpassing the previous record high set in May 2026. Numerator has tracked consumer sentiment and financial outlook monthly since January 2024.

"Prices for everyday goods continued to cool in August, even as gas prices climbed back above $4 a gallon," said Paul Stanley, senior economist at Numerator. "Across all groups, low-income households saw the sharpest slowdown in prices for everyday goods, which is a welcome relief for consumers who are often hit hardest by rising gas prices."

With two straight months of price declines and the sharpest slowdown concentrated among low-income households, the August CGPI points to a continued deceleration in year-over-year price growth heading into the fall — even as consumer anxiety about rising prices hits record levels.