Kroger, Vidmob Study: AI Creative Scoring Predicts Conversion

Predictive creative scoring forecast ecommerce purchase conversion with 81% accuracy before media was activated, according to a new industry study from Kroger, creative data and intelligent analytics platform Vidmob and nonprofit global trade association MMA Global announced Wednesday.

The study analyzed 1,934 video and image assets from Kroger campaigns across Meta and DV360, identifying the creative attributes most strongly linked to ecommerce conversion. The model trained on a full year of 2025 campaign data and was validated against an independent Q1 2026 dataset. That validation approach let it predict future creative performance rather than simply explain past results.

The research set out to answer a central question: Can a brand's unique creative data enable AI-powered predictive scoring to forecast conversions before campaigns launch? To find out, the three partners combined Kroger's live campaign data, Vidmob's creative data platform and MMA Global's industry research standards. They evaluated creative variables such as visual treatment, messaging, narrative structure, branding and on-screen human interaction. Findings passed both statistical significance testing and forward-looking predictive testing.

The numbers were substantial. Creative aligned with the model's recommendations averaged 4x higher conversion rates across Meta and DV360, at up to a 70% lower cost per conversion. Reallocating media toward higher-scoring creative could generate up to 2.2x as many conversions from the same advertising budget.

One of the strongest findings held across platforms: creative centered on authentic human experiences outperformed creative focused primarily on products or the act of shopping. For Kroger, whose brand purpose is to "Feed the Human Spirit," campaigns featuring relatable human moments — people sharing and enjoying food — produced stronger ecommerce results than transactional shopping imagery or product-first creative.

The study gives marketers a repeatable framework for connecting creative decisions to business outcomes, and it positions creative scoring as a planning tool rather than a post-campaign report card.

"Every brand can produce more creative than ever. The advantage now belongs to the ones who know which creative will drive the outcome they need," said Alex Collmer, founder and executive chairman at Vidmob. "Kroger's results show what happens when brands treat creative performance as ownable IP: Every choice becomes measurable, and every campaign makes the next one smarter. This is the beginning of creative data becoming the foundation for how marketers plan, buy and measure across every category, not just retail."

For marketers managing large creative volumes across retail media, the implication is direct: scoring creative before launch, then shifting budget toward the highest-scoring assets, offers a measurable path to more conversions from existing spend.