UK Supermarket Sales Rise 3.2% in October as Halloween Lifts Spending

By James Calloway

UK supermarket Total Till sales rose 3.2% in the four weeks ending October 31, 2026, NielsenIQ reported today. Growth strengthened through the month, reaching 4.1% in the final week. Unit sales grew 1.5% over the four weeks — the strongest performance this year outside Easter.

Shopping frequency increased 2.1% year on year, while average spend per visit rose 1.5% to £18.96. Food inflation climbed to 2.9% in October, up from 2.4% in September.

What drove the category growth?

Ambient grocery was the fastest-growing supermarket super-category, with sales up 6.9%. Growth accelerated from 3.3% in the first fortnight to 10.6% in the second. Canned goods within the category surged 27% in the second half of the month — a spike that coincided with the government's "Be Ready" advice, which may have shifted grocery shopping patterns.

The impulse super-category grew 5.5%... specifically 5.4% in value, supported by sweets, chocolate sharing multipacks and snacks. Multipack confectionery value sales were broadly flat at -0.5%, but unit sales rose 4.5%, indicating shoppers bought more packs without spending more.

Alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages posted 28% value growth even as overall alcohol sales stayed largely flat at +0.1%. Cosmetics sales increased 3.5%. Some categories traditionally tied to Halloween failed to grow against last year, suggesting shoppers kept making selective trade-offs on discretionary purchases.

How did Halloween perform against weak confidence?

The sales recovery came despite consumer confidence falling 11 points to -24. NielsenIQ noted the last drop of that size followed the Brexit vote. Rising energy and fuel costs continued to pressure household budgets.

Pumpkins were a standout: unit sales grew 8% year on year, underscoring how affordability drives Halloween spending. Half-term holidays added a further boost as families embraced seasonal celebrations while seeking value.

Why is online growing faster than stores?

Online grocery sales increased 13.1% in October, against just 1.5% growth for in-store sales. Ecommerce accounted for almost 59% of all FMCG value growth at the major supermarkets and 80% of incremental unit growth, as households replenished grocery supplies digitally.

Online also captured Halloween demand, particularly in confectionery, as shoppers used digital channels for seasonal treats and last-minute purchases. Rapid grocery delivery accounted for 11.5% of all online FMCG sales on Saturday, October 31, reaching levels comparable with summer highs.

Which retailers gained share?

Tesco gained momentum with sales up 2.6% over the latest 12 weeks, ahead of Morrisons at +1.2%. Sainsbury's and Asda were broadly flat. Ocado grew 16.8% and M&S 10.9%, both delivering double-digit growth well ahead of the market. Lidl recorded 6.7% growth.

The figures indicate retailers combining value, convenience and differentiated products are best placed to capture spending as the industry enters the festive trading period.

Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NielsenIQ, said: "There was improved growth in supermarket sales in October, helped by the half-term holidays and Halloween, which encouraged shoppers to spend more on special treats for the family. This is despite consumer confidence falling, suggesting shoppers are still willing to loosen the purse strings when there's an occasion to celebrate."

Looking ahead, Watkins said Christmas advertising campaigns will be key: "The industry needs to get shoppers in the mood to spend, so the launch of Christmas advertising campaigns will be important in showcasing what's new, different, and, crucially, affordable. With Black Friday providing another focus for shoppers in November, we expect the acceleration in supermarket sales to begin in early December. Given the current momentum, we anticipate Total Till growth of around +2.5% to +3% this Christmas, as retailers look to make the most of the crucial final weeks of the year."