Circana: GLP-1 Households Reshape Grocery Spending Patterns

By James Calloway

30% of U.S. households now report a current GLP-1 user, according to Circana research presented in a recent webinar.

Circana’s September 2026 receipt panel survey found that 37% of polled households had someone who had used a GLP-1. The share rose from 17% in 2024. Current-user households still outspend nonusers on food and beverage at retail. Circana also found that their product mix changes with time on treatment. The result is a rearranged shopping basket, not a smaller one.

“So this isn’t a story of consumers simply buying less food or spending less when it comes to food and beverage at retail,” said Daniel Joyner, consultant, consumer and shopper insights at Circana. “It’s really a story of reallocation of spend as households settle into treatment.”

Joyner presented the findings with Sally Lyons Wyatt, global EVP and chief advisor, consumer goods and foodservice insights at Circana, in the webinar “GLP-1 Unlocked: The Next Phase of Consumer and Retail Transformation.”

How does spending change after treatment begins?

Before treatment, GLP-1 households spent about 8% more than nonusers on CPG food and beverage, according to Circana. Their spending index was 108. It fell 2.5 points in year one and 1.9 points in year two against the pre-treatment baseline. Of 301 food and beverage subcategories, 81 posted gains in year one and 117 in year two.

Refrigerated weight control and nutritional liquids and powders rose 72.1 index points in year one, according to Circana. They rose 84.2 points in year two. Circana found carbonated soft drinks flat in year one. The category rose 8.2 points in year two, while water declined in both years.

Total retail alcohol fell 6.5 points in year one and 10.2 points in year two, according to Circana. Wine bucked the decline. It moved from a 2-point decline to a 3.4-point gain.

“This is more of a shift toward fewer occasions or more selective drinking occasions, rather than a complete wholesale exit from the category,” Joyner said.

Circana found that candy and frozen desserts declined at first. Both turned positive in the second half of year one. They rose 5.7 and 5.3 points in year two.

“Households using GLP-1 don’t appear to be abandoning indulgence permanently,” Joyner said. “Instead, they’re taking time to reintroduce treats in a way that fits with their new appetites and routines.”

Joyner said: “And for brands and retailers, this points toward opportunities around smaller portions and products that can deliver satisfaction, maybe some permissible indulgence to users while they’re on their GLP-1 journeys.”

Which products gain as treatment continues?

Circana’s data showed gains for prepared foods and soup. Refrigerated lunches rose 11.6 points in year two. Shelf-stable prepared pasta and microwaveable dinners moved from small year-one declines to second-year gains of 11.1 and 10.5 points.

In Circana’s second-year data, pork rinds rose 16.1 points, jerky 12.4 points, and meat, cheese and cracker lunch kits 5.8 points. Nutritional and health-value bars rose 12.4 points in year one.

“These categories are certainly examples of products addressing several GLP-1 needs at once,” Joyner said. “They provide protein, they can work with smaller appetites, and they can work into more flexible eating occasions.”

Why do some early gains fade?

Circana’s data showed momentum fading in seafood. Tuna rose 3.2 points in the first quarter of treatment, then fell to 5.2 points below baseline by year two. Frozen, refrigerated and shelf-stable seafood also fell below baseline in year two.

“The challenge to retailers and brands is sustaining that initial interest over the entire journey,” Joyner said. “And that may require some innovations around easier preparation, smaller pack sizes, portable formats, or just giving consumers clearer ideas how to incorporate seafood into simple meals and snacks.”

Circana’s produce data showed salads falling 5.4 points in year one and 14.6 in year two. Cherries rose 17.7 points and herbs 13.5 in year two.

“Nutritional value alone doesn’t necessarily determine whether a food works for GLP-1 users,” Joyner said. “Tolerability, portion size, texture, preparation all matter, as well.”

Circana’s cheese data showed processed cheese rising 5 points in year two. Shredded cheese and cheese chunks declined in both years.

“Consumers are simply favoring the formats that work best for their changing appetites and eating occasions while they are taking GLP-1,” Joyner said.

How do health needs and channels shift?

Circana found that weight control liquids and powders rose 28.5 points in year one and 26.6 in year two. Gastrointestinal remedies rose 12 points and 8.5 points. About seven in 10 current-user households reported at least one side effect in the past three months.

“This creates a significant opportunity to connect the dots for these consumers between nutrition, digestive care, hydration, weight management – all as part of the same shopping mission,” Joyner said.

Circana’s channel data showed grocery spending among GLP-1 households slipping 1.9 points in year one and 1 point in year two. Convenience fell 8.5 points in year one. E-commerce fell 7.1 points in year two. Drugstores rose 2.7 points in year one and 6.6 points in year two.

“Grocery can make smaller, more intentional baskets easier to shop,” Wyatt said.

Wyatt added that in grocery, “the emphasis is shifting toward more nutrient per bite, with portion-aware products and clearer information about protein and other nutrients. Curated collections, filters and education can connect innovation with easier discovery.”

Wyatt cited Walgreens, which organizes GLP-1 support in-store and online around four needs: nutrition, vitamins and minerals, gastrointestinal concerns and hair thinning. She also pointed to online resources and product collections from Walmart and Target.

“The distinction is organizing across aisles around consumer needs rather than leaving the shoppers making those connections themselves,” Wyatt said.

Forty-eight percent of previous-user households said they were at least somewhat likely to restart within a year. “Stopping may represent a pause rather than a final decision,” Wyatt said.

GLP-1 households now account for 32% of food and beverage units purchased, Circana said. The company projects the share will reach 40% by 2030. The projection is based on active use reaching 35% to 40% of U.S. households.

“So this is a conditional outlook rather than a guaranteed outcome,” Wyatt said. “For brands and retailers, I would use this as a planning signal.”