Grocery Execs Underestimate GLP-1 Impact on Sales, Shoptalk Warns

Fewer than one in five grocery executives expect GLP-1 drug use to have a negative impact on top-line sales over the next five years, according to data Brendan Witcher presented Thursday at Groceryshop 2026 in Las Vegas. Only 2% believe the hit will exceed 10%, and 20% think it will surpass 5%.

Witcher, global vice president of product and content at Shoptalk and Groceryshop, closed out the keynote speaker lineup with his grocery industry outlook. He argued the numbers signal that too few executives see the bigger picture on GLP-1 medications.

GLP-1 use is not a trend but a lifelong treatment, Witcher said. He cited figures showing 72% of U.S. residents are overweight and 40% classify as obese. "We are nowhere near [the maximum of] GLP-1 use," he said. "And as more people use this drug, the impact on grocers is going to be even greater."

CPG brands are already responding. Witcher noted that manufacturers are changing packaging to flag products as "GLP-1 friendly."

Retail media spending faces a different pressure. A July 2026 study by Bain & Company that Witcher cited found 80% of Americans were trying to cut spending, and more than one in four were actively trying to reduce grocery spending. Forty-nine percent said they were buying fewer items. Fifty-six percent said they were trading down to lower-priced brands, and 44% said they were relying more heavily on discounts.

Physical stores still anchor the business. Witcher pointed out that 93% of U.S. grocery sales occur in physical stores, a fact that positions retail media to make an enormous impact moving forward.

A Shoptalk 2026 grocery pulse survey underscores where brands are placing their bets. Fifty-eight percent of brand executives said placement on grocery digital properties, including websites, apps and in-store displays, will matter significantly more over the next one to five years than it does today. Retailers need to put messaging in front of shoppers at the moment they make buying decisions, Witcher said.

Investment priorities reflect that shift. Digital displays rank No. 3 on the list of grocery investments, according to Witcher, below digital coupons and store pickup but above mobile devices, loyalty programs on apps and electronic shelf labels.

Artificial intelligence will reshape store labor rather than eliminate it, in Witcher's view. Eighty-five percent of grocery executives expect associates' roles to evolve into customer advisors, product specialists or experience managers as AI removes or reduces tasks.

He framed the stakes in human terms. "Food is personal," he said. "And when it's personal, if you remove the personal from it, then people don't have really any reason to shop with you at all because they are looking for that."

For grocery marketers, the message from Las Vegas is direct: prepare now for a GLP-1-driven shift in basket size and composition, because the shopper behavior change is already underway and accelerating.