Holiday Shoppers Expect Less for More, and Sales Could Decline

By Tom Whitfield

The latest holiday projections suggest spending could drop this season, as shoppers arrive expecting to receive less while paying more. Even the forecasts that still predict growth concede that consumers remain under financial pressure.

That split matters for marketers planning fourth-quarter campaigns. When the optimistic scenario still describes a pressured consumer, the realistic scenario demands tighter targeting, sharper value messaging and a willingness to defend margin rather than buy volume.

What does the pressure actually look like?

The projection at the center of this story is stark in its framing: shoppers expect less for more. They anticipate paying higher prices for a holiday experience that feels smaller than in recent years.

For practitioners, that expectation changes the mechanics of promotion. A shopper who already believes the season will disappoint responds differently to discounting than one hunting for incremental deals. The first group screens messages for honesty about price; the second screens for depth of cut.

Forecasts that still show growth do not dispute this mood. They simply argue that spending will rise despite it, because consumers keep showing up even as their budgets strain. The growth case, in other words, rests on persistence, not confidence.

The decline case rests on arithmetic. If shoppers pay more per item and buy fewer items, total spend falls unless traffic climbs enough to offset both. Holiday traffic has not reliably delivered that offset in pressured seasons past, which is why several projections now lean toward a drop.

What should marketers do with a split forecast?

Treat the forecast range as a planning input, not a verdict. A season that could plausibly end in decline argues for:

• Value messaging that acknowledges higher prices rather than masking them
• Promotional calendars built to protect margin on core gift categories
• Loyalty and CRM programs used to hold onto the best customers if volume contracts
• Media plans that can flex downward quickly if early-season sell-through confirms the pessimistic case

The consumer described in these projections is not sitting out the holiday. This shopper is participating on reduced terms, weighing every purchase against a price level that already feels excessive.

Why the framing matters more than the number

The phrase to watch is "less for more," because it captures expectations, not just budgets. Expectations drive behavior earlier than budgets do. A shopper who expects disappointment starts triaging the gift list in November rather than December, which moves the promotional window forward and compresses full-price selling time.

Marketers who read the season as purely a pricing problem will discount into weakness. Marketers who read it as an expectations problem will address what the shopper believes they are getting, not only what they are paying.

The projections themselves will keep revising through the season. The underlying signal, a consumer who keeps spending while feeling squeezed, has already shaped how the major forecasts split, and it will shape whichever one proves right.