NRF Projects $1 Trillion Holiday Spend. Store Experience Decides Who Keeps It

Consumers are expected to spend $1 trillion with U.S. retailers in-store and online this holiday season, according to the National Retail Federation, and the retailers who win that money will be the ones who help shoppers hit their own goals rather than shout for attention.

That is the core message from Nikki Baird, vice president of strategy and product at retail technology firm Aptos, who laid out the playbook in an interview with sister publication CX Dive. "There are some years where consumers are more open to other objectives or rethinking their own objectives, but this year I think they're going to be very narrowly focused," Baird said.

Marketing gets customers in the door, but the experience decides whether they return, according to customer experience expert and author Shep Hyken. He frames the whole season around one question: "What am I doing right now to make sure that customer wants to come back the next time they need what we sell?"

What does a constrained consumer actually buy?

The back-to-school season offered a preview, according to Baird. Cash-strapped consumers skipped personal wardrobe refreshes but still bought first-day outfits for their kids. The holiday version of that instinct means protecting celebrations and gifting traditions even while cutting back elsewhere.

"As a retailer, trying to help the customer achieve that objective is what's going to win hearts and minds," Baird said.

Localization matters here, too. A shopper in Denver keeps different traditions than one in Chicago, and retailers should tune decor and product assortments to each store's region, Baird said.

Speed matters just as much. Stressed customers have little patience for long lines or out-of-stocks, and unchecked frustration spreads. "Retailers honestly need to do what they can to be prepared to deflect, redirect and keep those things from boiling over into other customers' experiences or becoming blowback for the store associate," Baird said.

Consistency prevents those blowups, according to Hyken. Shoppers don't check traffic data before visiting; they expect the same experience in late December as in the dead of summer. "The point is, it doesn't matter whether it's a busy time or a slow time," Hyken said. "You want the same result."

How do you staff for the crunch?

Hyken compares associates to a sports team that needs constant training and motivation. His tool of choice is the pre-shift huddle — 15 minutes before the doors open — where associates share stories of how they recently improved a customer's day.

Managers carry their own rule, Hyken said: "do unto employees as you would have them do to customers." If a leader spots a frustrated associate, they should pull them aside and help them recover before burnout kills the service.

Baird's advice on perks is blunt. Let managers buy lunch for a team that might otherwise miss it, and don't pinch pennies on gestures that make associates glad they showed up. "This is not the time to be really cheap or controlling about ways that you can make store associates feel glad that they actually showed up for work today," Baird said.

What happens when things go wrong?

Some problems demand an instant fix:

• A cart too full for self-checkout means pulling that customer from the queue — annoying for one, fair for everyone else.
• A product or promotion rung up wrong at the register means money taken from the customer.

"If it's financial, and you have taken money from me, you need to fix that now," Baird said. "No rain check. No 'we'll send you an email.' None of that."

Out-of-stocks take longer to solve, but Hyken points to the recovery playbook: free delivery of the missing item, or a hold at another location. Ace Hardware goes further and calls nearby competitors on the customer's behalf to check their stock. "They would rather hold on to a customer and lose that sale," Hyken said.

The work doesn't end at the register, though. Hyken argues brick-and-mortar stores underuse the personalized follow-up messages that online sellers lean on. His closing prescription: if a new customer lands in your store this season and has a great experience, remind them of it afterward — because the trillion-dollar holiday only pays off for retailers who convert December's traffic into January's repeat buyers.