Target and Walmart Bet on Storytelling, Not Price, This Holiday

Walmart grew revenue 5.9% year over year to $187.9 billion in Q2 while Target posted $26.5 billion, up 5.3% — and both retailers are now spending the holidays fighting for the same high-income, still-careful shopper with campaigns built on characters rather than discounts.

Walmart's holiday push extends the "Who Knew?" platform it has built over the past year and a half to shift consumer perceptions toward a more on-trend assortment and better-than-expected deals. The concept comes to life as a riff on "The Muppet Christmas Carol," starring Walton Goggins as Ebenezer Scrooge alongside Kermit the Frog and Miss Piggy.

Target is working to sustain a turnaround aimed at recapturing its "Tar-zhay" magic — the cheap-but-chic allure diluted during the bumpy post-pandemic years, when the brand got bogged down in culture wars backlash and lackluster store presentation. Its campaign anchors on a gifting academy, the "Holiday Academy of Giftology," led by a wise-cracking expert played by D'Arcy Carden, with departments and faculty members specializing in toys and gifts for people who claim they do not want anything.

What does each campaign change?

"For Target, they're really trying to reassert their difference," said Taylre Stumpf, a retail consultant at Kantar who specializes in Target and the mass channel. "Walmart's is more of that nostalgia, that reappraisal: 'You know us, but now see us differently.'"

The campaigns share a strategy: storytelling through colorful characters and fictional settings to tout product assortment and speedy delivery. Both retailers previously took a more fragmented approach keyed to seasonal moments like Black Friday. A single narrative now provides consistency, and it differentiates them in a category that has overskewed toward deals and promotions amid persistent inflation.

"Rather than shouting price, they're shouting that storyline of, trust us, [we have] the best gifts," Stumpf said.

How close is the rivalry?

Walmart's "Who Knew?" reflects its evolution as it wins over higher-income shoppers and revamps segments like apparel. Miss Piggy will promote trendy fashion items in "A Who Knew Carol," as will content creators, Walmart Chief Marketing Officer William White previously told sister publication Marketing Dive. The effect is that Walmart, in presentation and product focus, now looks a bit more like Target.

"The mass channel, which is Target and Walmart, they're both fighting for that same high income, still careful shopper, but using the same tools," said Stumpf. "We just see value now as a type of table stakes, so both retailers now have to get creative on how to connect with each shopper."

Walmart operates more than 4,600 U.S. brick-and-mortar stores; Target has fewer than half that. Walmart's U.S. comparable sales rose 2.6% in Q2, while Target's comparable sales and traffic increased 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively. Target raised its full-year guidance around its Q2 earnings report in August, but analysts view the holidays as the real proving ground after a CEO transition and a 2026 upswing.

"Walmart has definitely been giving Target a run for their money," said Stumpf. "I think the last several years of Target underperforming, Walmart has taken advantage of that and has done very well."

Where can Target find an edge?

Target cannot win on price, so it must double down on personalization and curation, according to Stumpf. The retailer connects popular online items into an in-store presence and tracks the tastes of a specific type of millennial shopper.

"Target knows it can't outprice Walmart. If Walmart's already trying to take pages out of its playbook with the storytelling … all Target really has left is personalization and curation for its shoppers," said Stumpf.

Omnichannel offers another advantage. Visual elements of the academy-themed ads appear in physical stores and online. Target overhauled its creator programs earlier this year and now leverages Club Target for smaller and mid-sized creators on platforms like TikTok, plus an exclusive partnership with LTK for bigger-name influencers.

"Target is really the only retailer I'm seeing right now that does a great job of blending the whole unified experience through their different tiers of creators," said Stumpf.

Consumer outlooks for the season remain mixed. Deloitte's consumer surveys point to robust retail goods spending, but Kantar ShopperScape data shared by Stumpf indicates 16% of shoppers plan to spend less this year — a split that puts a premium on whichever retailer can personalize the purchase rather than simply discount it.