Elevated fuel costs could soon start to wear down retailers and suppliers that have so far kept price increases contained for many products, industry experts said at an FMI briefing.

The warning, delivered at the food industry trade group's briefing, points to transportation and energy expenses as the next pressure point in the grocery pricing cycle. Retailers and suppliers have absorbed costs rather than pass them along on many products, according to the experts who spoke. Whether that restraint continues depends on how long fuel prices stay elevated.

For marketers and category managers, the signal is direct. Companies that have relied on price restraint to protect volumes may need to revisit trade spend, promotions and pricing architecture if fuel-driven costs flow through supply chains. The FMI briefing framed fuel as the variable most likely to change the current pricing equilibrium in grocery aisles.

Industry experts at the briefing did not point to broad price increases as an accomplished fact. They described a risk: the cost pressure exists, retailers and suppliers have contained it so far, and that containment could erode.

The so-what for the grocery trade is timing. If fuel costs keep running high, the next round of supplier negotiations and retail pricing decisions will test how much longer containment holds.