Belgian FMCG Growth Slows to 1.5% as Promo Pressure Hits 22.5%

Belgian FMCG value growth reached just +1.5% year to date through September 2026, a sharp cooldown from the surges of recent years, according to YouGov's Belgian Shopper Panel. Food inflation contributed a marginal +0.4%, volumes added +1.2%, and trading effects subtracted 0.1%. Indexed against 2019, volumes have grown only about 2.6% in seven years — essentially flat.

Consumer confidence has slipped as pessimism about the economic outlook builds, per the National Bank Belgium, and inflation stands at 5.26% according to Statbel. Budget and economic concerns remain the number-one societal worry, YouGov's Behavior Change report for Belgium (Spring) found. Yet the mood is loosening: while price and promotions still dominate purchase decisions, Belgians increasingly buy what they like rather than only what they need.

Where are the trips going?

Shopping frequency continues its long-term decline. Specialty stores and hard discounters lost the most trips year-on-year, and traditional trade — bakeries, butchers and similar outlets — keeps shrinking. Its trip share has nearly halved since 2016, falling from 20.7% to 13.0%.

Supermarkets and proximity stores hold their ground. Beauty and drugstores post double-digit value growth and steadily gain trip share. The frequency decline is driven primarily by upper-class households, historically the heaviest users of specialty stores, which now consolidate shopping across fewer stores and fewer trips.

Loyalty is inching up. Households visited 6.1 banners on average, down from 6.4 in 2023, and retailer loyalty scores are rising — though at 15.7%, one might debate how loyal that really is.

Why does Sunday matter now?

Sunday's share of weekly shopping trips climbed from 5.9% in 2023 to 7.4% in MAT September 2026, and its value share rose even faster, from 4.1% to 5.8%. Sunday baskets are growing, and more households shop supermarkets that day than ever before. The growth reflects shifted timing rather than incremental demand. YouGov notes Sunday shoppers buy more unplanned products and commit less to specific brands, making the day a prime window for in-store activation. Fresh food still drives the mission, but chilled food, beverages and ambient food all gain share in Sunday baskets.

How deep does the class divide run?

Upper-class households grew volume per buyer by +0.6%, while lower-class households saw volume fall 1.3% and spend per buyer rise +0.2% — paying more for less. A-brands regained value share overall, reaching 60.0% in MAT September 2026, up from 59.5%. Lower-class families drove the faster gain, lifting A-brand share from 57.0% to 57.8%, while upper-class households held around 60-61%.

Promotional pressure jumped from 18.9% to 22.5% of volume year-on-year, with A-brands climbing from 31.5% to 36.5%. The share of heavy deal-seekers — households buying more than 40% of volume on promotion — grew from 22.5% in 2024 to 33.6% by mid-2026. For brand owners, the panel data raises the question: how do you build brand equity when a growing share of volume depends on the next deal?

What roles did heatwaves and GLP-1 play?

Belgium experienced three heatwaves in summer 2026. Nearly 59% of households reported avoiding cooking because of the heat, driving surges in water, sports drinks, juices, syrups, meal salads and canned fruit. Bread, frozen vegetables, flour and baking products lost. Ice cream showed high uplift but linked less reliably to heatwave intensity than beverages.

Around 12% of Belgian households have used or currently use GLP-1 weight-loss medications. Users report smaller portions, less snacking and fewer calories. In tracked users in some other European countries, category volumes dropped 5-7%, with spend falling on ice cream and beer and rising on fruits, vegetables and bouillon. If the larger pool of considerers follows, the volume impact could be substantial and structural.

What should practitioners do?

YouGov frames three imperatives. Win the trip, not just the transaction, because fewer visits make each one count more. Play the premiumisation wave smartly, justifying premium pricing through quality and emotional connection rather than price architecture alone. And prepare for structural disruption — from traditional trade's decline to Sunday's rise to deal-seeking and GLP-1 — because none of these shifts will reverse.