India's Diwali Trade Set to Cross Rs 7 Lakh Crore in 2026

India's Diwali festive trade is projected to exceed Rs 7 lakh crore in 2026, up 15-18% from the record Rs 6.05 lakh crore recorded in 2025, according to the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT). On November 4, 2026, CAIT Secretary General and Chandni Chowk MP Praveen Khandelwal shared the estimate on X, covering the season from Navratri to Diwali. Delhi alone is projected to register approximately Rs 1 lakh crore in festive business.

The growth trajectory is steep. CAIT data show Diwali sales crossed Rs 1.25 lakh crore in 2021, rose to more than Rs 1.5 lakh crore in 2022, reached Rs 3.75 lakh crore in 2023 and hit Rs 6.05 lakh crore in 2025 — a 25% increase over the previous year's estimated Rs 4.25 lakh crore. The 2025 total comprised Rs 5.40 lakh crore in goods and Rs 65,000 crore in services.

What drove the record 2025 season?

The 2025 festive season generated approximately 5 million temporary jobs, according to CAIT, across retail sales, warehousing, packaging, transportation, logistics, delivery services, manufacturing and customer support.

Fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12% of sales. Gold and jewellery contributed 10%. Electronics and electrical products accounted for 8%, while consumer durables, garments and gifts each contributed 7%. The Trader Confidence Index stood at 8.6 out of 10; the Consumer Confidence Index reached 8.4.

Domestic products dominated. CAIT reported 87% of consumers preferred Indian-made products during Diwali 2025, and sales of indigenous products increased by 25%.

How did digital payments perform?

UPI recorded approximately 740 million transactions on Diwali Eve 2025. Average daily transaction value in October 2025 rose 13% over September, reaching approximately Rs 94,000 crore. Monthly average transaction volume stood at 695 million, up 6%.

By October 20, 2025, daily UPI transaction values had crossed Rs 1 lakh crore on six occasions — twice the September count. Total October UPI transaction value was expected to exceed Rs 28 lakh crore. The scale built on Diwali 2024, when UPI processed 6,440 lakh transactions in a single day on October 31.

Which sectors gained most?

Automobiles. Tata Motors sold more than 1 lakh cars and SUVs during the 30-day festive period in 2025, up 33% year-on-year. Electric vehicle sales exceeded 10,000 units, a 37% increase.

E-commerce. Festive online sales crossed Rs 1.2 lakh crore in 2025. Unicommerce reported order volumes up 24% and gross merchandise value up 23%. Amazon's Great Indian Festival attracted 276 crore customer visits. Quick commerce orders on Swiggy Instamart, Zepto, Blinkit and BigBasket surged approximately 120%, with gold and silver coin sales rising multi-fold.

Fireworks. Sales reached approximately Rs 7,000 crore in 2025, up Rs 1,000 crore over the previous year, according to the Fireworks Traders Federation. Sivakasi accounts for nearly 90% of India's fireworks production.

Travel. Flight bookings increased 60-65% year-on-year, with Ayodhya up more than 100%, according to MakeMyTrip CEO Rajesh Magow. Four- and five-star hotel bookings doubled. Travellers extended trips from the usual three days to between six and 12 days.

Services. Restaurants, pubs and entertainment venues recorded an 8-20% rise in spending. Restaurant footfalls rose more than 20% during Navratri-Durga Puja.

What did earlier years show?

Diwali 2024 drove 14% growth in online retail, with fashion up 42% and decorative light rope sales up 204%. Kolkata's roughly 90,000 sweet shops recorded a 20% sales rise, in a market generating Rs 10,000-12,000 crore annually. In Surat, more than 80,000 textile parcels worth approximately Rs 250 crore moved on 11 dedicated goods trains, with around 350 trucks departing daily.

Diwali 2023 recorded Rs 3.75 lakh crore in trade, with Khandelwal stating Chinese products lost more than Rs 1 lakh crore in festive business. In 2022, retail crossed Rs 1.5 lakh crore and jewellery sales rose 20%. In 2021, Delhi alone recorded approximately Rs 25,000 crore, with gold and silver jewellery sales of about Rs 9,000 crore and packaging materials at Rs 15,000 crore.

Did protests dent the numbers?

Delhi still recorded festive business exceeding Rs 1 lakh crore despite political disruption. The Chamber of Trade and Industry estimated Rs 14,000 crore in losses to Delhi businesses between October 1 and November 1, including Rs 10,000-11,000 crore attributed to the November 1 INDIA bloc rally at Ramlila Maidan. Around 2.5 lakh shops across 20-25 major markets shut, and nearly 5,000 goods vehicles could not operate normally.

With 2026 projections pointing past Rs 7 lakh crore, CAIT's numbers position Diwali as one of India's largest single commercial events, spanning metropolitan retail, digital platforms and manufacturing clusters from Sivakasi to Surat.