CAIT puts 2026 Diwali trade near Rs 7 lakh crore nationwide

By James Calloway

CAIT’s November 9 assessment put 2026 Diwali trade across India at nearly Rs 7 lakh crore, compared with approximately Rs 6.05 lakh crore last year.

CAIT Secretary General and MP Praveen Khandelwal shared the updated figures. CAIT had initially projected more than Rs 7 lakh crore for 2026, with expected growth of approximately 15 to 18 per cent.

Last year’s CAIT estimate for the Navratri-to-Diwali period included Rs 5.40 lakh crore in goods trade and Rs 65,000 crore in services. CAIT said its figures are trade estimates and should not be confused with independently audited national retail sales data.

What drove Dhanteras’ Rs 1.25 lakh crore?

CAIT estimated nationwide Dhanteras business at Rs 1.25 lakh crore on November 6, above its initial estimate of more than Rs 1 lakh crore.

The All India Jewellers and Goldsmith Federation estimated combined gold and silver transactions at more than Rs 66,000 crore. CAIT cited November 10 reports putting precious metals at nearly 53 per cent of the estimated Dhanteras business.

CAIT reported that jewellers saw strong demand for lightweight gold jewellery, silver coins and traditional decorative items despite precious metal prices remaining significantly higher than a year earlier. Buyers favored 14-carat and 18-carat gold as more affordable options. CAIT also reported stronger sales of silver utensils, decorative articles and auspicious figurines of fish, tortoises and elephants.

Reuters reported that gold traded at around Rs 1,41,800 per 10 grams on November 6 after touching approximately Rs 1,37,863 earlier that week, its lowest level since March 24.

The India Bullion and Jewellers Association had anticipated an increase of around 10 per cent in Dhanteras sales compared with the previous year. CAIT linked the price correction and traditional preference for precious metals to buyers returning to jewellery showrooms.

What changed in Delhi’s festive market?

CAIT reported that Delhi’s Diwali-related business exceeded Rs 1 lakh crore, supported by wholesale and retail activity. CAIT listed jewellery, electronics, clothing, automobiles, household appliances and traditional festive products among categories that drew considerable demand in the capital.

Khandelwal said higher customer footfall had helped commercial establishments recover some momentum after business disruptions allegedly caused by the Opposition rally on November 1 and protests and demonstrations in preceding weeks.

He said: “Peaceful protests and demonstrations were a democratic right, but political activities should not disrupt public movement, commercial operations or the livelihoods of traders and daily-wage workers.”

CAIT said millions of shopkeepers, street vendors, small entrepreneurs and workers had benefited from the increase in festive spending.

Which sectors recorded stronger festive demand?

CAIT reported broad festive demand beyond precious metals:

• Electronics and electrical goods included smartphones, LED televisions, refrigerators, washing machines and air conditioners.
• Clothing demand covered sarees, suits, kurtas, readymade garments, children’s clothing and traditional festive attire.
• Traditional Diwali goods included earthen diyas, Maa Lakshmi and Bhagwan Ganesha idols, puja materials, sweets and decorative articles.
• The automobile sector recorded demand for passenger cars, two-wheelers and commercial vehicles.
• Furniture, home décor, gifts and household products also contributed.

CAIT said the spread indicated that the festive season generated activity across multiple segments of India’s retail economy.

What drove demand for Swadeshi products?

CAIT highlighted demand for khadi, handloom textiles, handicrafts, handcrafted decorations, goods made by local artisans and products from women’s self-help groups.

Khandelwal attributed part of the preference for domestic products to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeals for ‘Vocal for Local’, ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ and the promotion of Swadeshi goods.

He said: “Indian artisans, domestic manufacturers, small-scale industries and local entrepreneurs had received considerable support from consumers.”

CAIT said seasonal demand gave artisans, independent manufacturers and women entrepreneurs opportunities to expand their customer bases. The company said traditional industries and small businesses that depend on seasonal purchases also gained from the festive period.

Who benefited beyond the stores?

CAIT said increased spending benefited small and medium-sized traders, street vendors, daily-wage workers, micro and cottage industries, self-help groups, women entrepreneurs and artisans.

Transportation and logistics activity increased as goods moved across markets. Packaging companies, delivery services and transport operators also benefited from higher demand.

The season created extra earning opportunities for temporary workers handling stocking, packaging, transportation and delivery. CAIT said the Navratri-to-Diwali period is one of the most important commercial phases of the year for many small businesses.

CAIT’s findings give small traders and domestic manufacturers a broader platform for the next festive cycle, with 2026 spending spanning traditional products, modern goods and services. The nearly Rs 7 lakh crore total remains a CAIT estimate, not audited national retail sales data, and signals the scale of the season rather than a precise sales count.