Grocery & CPG

Grocery Gauge Hits 55 in August as Earnings, Visits Stabilize

Supermarket News' Grocery Gauge scored 55 in August, a 'fair' rating, as store visits rose 0.20% year over year and openings outnumbered closings 20 to 13.

Grocery Gauge Hits 55 in August as Earnings, Visits Stabilize
Grocery Gauge Hits 55 in August as Earnings, Visits StabilizeI-5 Design & Manufacture / Openverse

Supermarket News' Grocery Gauge climbed to 55 — a "fair" rating — for August, as grocery earnings came in slightly better and store visits held steady.

The Grocery Gauge is a monthly pulse of the grocery industry from Supermarket News that grades five factors — store closings and openings, grocery inflation, grocery store earnings, grocery labor and grocery store visits — on a scale from 1 to 100, with editors calculating an overall score each month.

Store openings outpace closings. ScrapeHero's August data shows 20 store openings and just 13 store closings. That performance earned the category a score of 74.

Store visits edged up. Using the latest data from Placer.ai, store visits for the grocery industry in general rose 0.20% year over year in August. Visits for fresh format grocers jumped 6.3%, while visits for traditional grocery stores fell 0.50%. The monthly trend showed deceleration: July visits were up 1.6% year over year, while August visits rose just 0.20%. The category scored 77.

Earnings improved but the industry remains under pressure. Grocery store earnings have come in somewhat better over the last few weeks, but they still reflect an industry under duress. The latest earnings came from Kroger, which trimmed its outlook for full-year identical-store growth to less than 1%. UNFI had mixed results at best, reporting lower sales for its fourth quarter and fiscal 2026. Dollar General and Dollar Tree earnings painted a better picture, and grocery carried Walmart for the quarter. Earnings scored 52.

Grocery inflation stayed contained. The Consumer Price Index for food at home was unchanged from July to August, compared with an overall CPI gain of 0.4% for all goods, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. For the 12-month period through August, grocery-price inflation was up 2.2%, compared with 3.4% inflation overall, driven largely by energy price increases. According to Numerator, prices for everyday household purchases decreased 0.1% in August. The category scored 28 — the lowest of the five.

Supermarket News noted a methodology change: last month grocery inflation was measured low, mid and high; going forward it will be measured like the others — poor, fair and good — to get a more accurate overall score.

Grocery labor slipped. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, food and beverage retailers lost about 4,400 jobs in August from July. Labor scored 44.

The August reading suggests a grocery industry finding some footing on traffic and expansion while contending with persistent pressure on earnings and employment — with the Gauge's strongest scores concentrated in store visits and openings.

Source: Supermarket News

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Tom Whitfield

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Staff writer covering industry trends and analytics at Target Marketing.

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