Thanksgiving Meal Deals Drop Below $40 as Shoppers Protect the Feast

Walmart will feed 10 people for $35 this Thanksgiving — $3.50 per person — and it is not alone. Walmart, Hy-Vee, Aldi, Food Lion, Winn-Dixie and Tops are all running full holiday meals under $40, a pricing push that lands squarely on the findings of FMI – The Food Industry Association's new survey, U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends 2026: Holidays.

What is happening to shopper sentiment?

The survey, conducted with The Hartman Group, polled 1,467 U.S. grocery shoppers online Sept. 21-28. It finds 45 percent of shoppers extremely or very concerned about rising holiday food prices, up 8 points from fall 2025. Yet shoppers say they would rather cut back on holiday clothing, décor or events than scale back the feast. 72 percent call their grocery store's loyalty program essential to staying on budget.

Shoppers also report feeling more in control. The share reporting a lot or some control over grocery spending rose 13 points since August. Average weekly spending held steady at $172. FMI's Grocery Shopper Sentiment Index stands at 72, near its historical high.

"Food is what holds the holidays together, and shoppers are telling us they will protect the holiday meal even if it means trimming elsewhere," said Leslie G. Sarasin, president and CEO of FMI. "At the same time, they feel more in control of their grocery spending than any other major household expense for the first time since we began measuring in 2024, and their grocery stores are a big part of that confidence."

What does the data say about behavior?

• Food defines a successful holiday. After time with family and friends (67 percent), a great homemade feast (52 percent) is what shoppers most associate with holiday success. Only 17 percent would cut back on holiday meal food if needed, versus 46 percent for holiday clothing and 45 percent for shows and events.
• Scratch cooking is back. 59 percent of shoppers planning a turkey will make it from scratch, up 16 points from 2025. Freshly prepared turkey fell 10 points to 19 percent.
• Shoppers are ready to pivot. 24 percent are concerned about holiday food out-of-stocks, but half would simply make a different familiar dish.
• AI joins the holiday kitchen. Weekly AI use rose to 27 percent from 19 percent a year ago, and 65 percent would like AI help planning holiday meals.
• Loyalty is the savings engine. 71 percent have joined their primary store's program where offered, and 95 percent of members find it valuable. The top request for easing Thanksgiving prep is loyalty-member holiday discounts (36 percent). But only 58 percent of shoppers earning under $35,000 are members, versus 78 percent of those earning $150,000 or more.

How are grocers responding?

This season's deals read like a response to FMI's findings: sub-$40 full meals protect the feast, loyalty programs carry the discounts, and offerings now span scratch cooks, small gatherings and AI planners.

Walmart's 2026 Holiday Meal Basket serves 10 people for $35 with 26 national and Walmart brand items — 18 percent more food than last year at 12 percent less than those items cost in 2025, the lowest-priced one-click basket in the program's history. It is available through Dec. 24 with pickup and delivery, covering turkey, stuffing, green bean casserole, sweet potato casserole and pumpkin pie. Walmart's own holiday trend research found 6 in 10 customers say holiday costs shape their shopping mood and 70 percent say lower prices would make holiday shopping easier.

"This year, our Holiday Meal Basket brings even more food to the table for just $35, while making it easier for customers to plan, shop and celebrate in ways that work for them," said David Guggina, president and CEO of Walmart U.S.

Winn-Dixie offers two meal deals under $40: a Traditional Thanksgiving Cook-at-Home Meal Deal at $38.90 serving six with a Butterball turkey through pumpkin pie (through Nov. 25), and a $39.99 Heat-and-Serve Holiday Deli Meal (through Dec. 29), plus a $14.99 Full Plates, Full Hearts rotisserie chicken meal feeding four. Through its Gift of Good initiative, each store will donate $500 to a local hunger relief organization, more than $65,000 in total, while customers' Feed It Forward donation bags have provided more than $1 million in food since late 2025.

"We understand the importance of keeping holiday meals affordable so families can focus on what matters most: gathering around a table and making memories with loved ones," said Raymond Rhee, president and CEO of The Winn-Dixie Company.

Aldi pairs its classic Thanksgiving meal for 10 under $39 with three curated one-click online kits: Fan-Picked Appetizers, curated by Aldi superfan Alyssa Patton; a Small Gathering Kit of heat-and-serve favorites; and a Thanksgiving Recovery Kit of breakfast and hydration items for the morning after. "We curated these kits around what our shoppers crave, from easy entertaining to serving smaller gatherings to staying fueled through a busy holiday weekend," said Bridget Kozlowski, director of communications at Aldi.

Tops Friendly Markets sets the table for under $30 before taxes, anchored by Jennie-O or Shady Brook frozen turkeys at 48 cents per pound with a $25 additional purchase. A new Buy 5, Save $5 offer runs Nov. 15-21 on name brands including Ocean Spray, Stove Top, Heinz and Daisy. "A Thanksgiving meal for under $30 gives shoppers something more to feel good about as they gather around the table," said Ron Ferri, president of Tops Friendly Markets.

Food Lion's Thanksgiving Meal Deal returns at last year's price, serving 10 for less than $40 (under $4 per person) Nov. 11-26, in stores, through Food Lion To Go and on DoorDash, Instacart and Uber Eats. Its MVP Fall Haul awards a $20 coupon after six qualifying $50 trips, and Food Lion Feeds' Holidays Without Hunger campaign offers $6 donation boxes through Dec. 8 — a program that has helped provide more than 101 million meals since 2014. "We want our customers to feel confident they can bring the fresh holiday meals they love to the table at a price that fits their budget," said Gene Faller, EVP of merchandising at Food Lion.

What role does AI play this season?

Kroger is centering convenience and flexible feast sizes: ready-to-heat holiday sides, a "feast for a few" option pairing fully cooked turkey breast or rotisserie chicken with single-serve sides, and single-slice pies at bakery tables. Its AI Shopping Assistant can build a cart from a photographed recipe, scale portions and tailor a menu to household size and budget — the industry's clearest answer yet to the 65 percent of shoppers who want AI help with holiday planning. "We're focused on making holiday meals as simple and seamless as possible for gatherings of any size," said Mary Ellen Adcock, EVP and chief merchant and marketing officer at Kroger.

The Giant Company's free turkey program returns Nov. 6-26, letting Giant and Martin's customers redeem 400 Choice points for a free frozen turkey or alternatives including ham or a Tofurky roast, with the option to donate the certificate to a local food bank at the register. "We're bringing back our Choice Rewards free turkey program and pairing it with everyday low prices throughout the store," said Rebecca Lupfer, chief merchant at The Giant Company.

Hy-Vee announced Nov. 12 that it lowered its Holiday Meal Deal price: 10 people for under $35, or less than $3.50 per person, down from the $39 offer announced earlier. It is available in store and online Nov. 2-Dec. 24. The 26-item basket centers on a Hy-Vee frozen turkey of up to 12 pounds, plus stuffing, gravy, mashed potatoes, sweet potatoes with marshmallows, green bean casserole, corn, corn muffins, fresh cranberries, dinner rolls and pumpkin pie. Ocean Spray fresh cranberries are the only national brand; everything else is Hy-Vee private label or fresh produce.

"Hy-Vee is dedicated to helping families put more food on their tables, now for less than $3.50 per person," said Anna Stoermer, EVP, chief merchandising and retail officer at Hy-Vee. "We know customers are especially focused on value this holiday season, and the new Hy-Vee Holiday Meal Deal makes it even easier to feed more people for the lowest price."

Hy-Vee also offers a gluten-free Holiday Meal Deal for $50 or less; Premade Holiday Meals for parties of 2 to 12, with orders closing at 11:59 p.m. Nov. 24 for Thanksgiving and 11:59 p.m. Dec. 22 for Christmas; and "buy a ham, get a turkey free," running all of November at every location. All stores will be closed Thanksgiving Day and Christmas Day, with premade meal pickup available 8-11 a.m. on Thanksgiving and until 4 p.m. on Christmas Eve.

The pattern across these offers is consistent: fixed-price baskets for the feast, loyalty programs carrying the discounts, and AI and heat-and-serve formats catching the shoppers who plan late or cook small. With sentiment near its historical high and 36 percent of shoppers asking for loyalty-member holiday discounts, retailers that price the centerpiece meal aggressively — and make membership pay at checkout — are positioned to own the holiday basket.