Universal adoption of electronic shelf labels in U.S. grocery stores could cost workers between $1.6 billion and $6.9 billion in lost wages annually, according to a new analysis from the AFL-CIO Tech Institute.

The union's policy arm released the findings Wednesday in a brief titled "Priced Out, Pushed Out: Electronic Shelf Labels Raise Prices and Shrink Paychecks." Beyond wages, the analysis projects that widespread ESL adoption could affect between 44,223 and 191,633 jobs.

The Tech Institute based its analysis on ESL developers' own marketing materials. Those materials contradict the industry's public pitch, the brief argues. While vendors market ESLs as a win-win that frees grocery workers to spend more time helping customers, the Tech Institute found no evidence supporting that claim. Instead, ESL makers are selling the systems to retailers explicitly as a tool to cut labor costs, automate inventory tasks and reduce hours.

"Grocery workers are the backbone of our communities, yet the rapid, unchecked deployment of ESLs threatens to eliminate jobs and billions in wages, while potentially driving up families' grocery bills," said Lauren McFerran, executive director of the AFL-CIO Tech Institute. "Policymakers face a narrowing window to stop retailers from implementing this technology to harm both workers and shoppers."

The brief includes state-specific analysis of the economic impact. It concludes that the technology would harm workers and customers alike, and it calls on policymakers to take urgent action to protect both groups by banning ESLs.

The report also connects ESLs to surveillance pricing, also known as dynamic pricing, which relies on the labels to carry out pricing strategies. Three states have already outlawed the practice: Maryland, Connecticut and New Jersey.

For grocery retailers weighing ESL deployments, the brief signals a sharpening regulatory and labor fight. The Tech Institute's call for an outright ban, paired with existing state-level restrictions on dynamic pricing, suggests the technology's expansion will face growing political scrutiny even as retailers pursue its promised labor savings.